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Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season
Future start We have one for the EPac, so why not the Atlantic? Betting pools are here. I'll make my worldwide calls later on. Ryan1000 21:20, November 17, 2014 (UTC) :I really want more from this upcoming season; 2014 was a good start. I predict...18 total depressions, 16 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6''' major hurricanes, all with an ACE of ~'''194 units. Also, I want this season to be dead quiet at first before becoming a nightmare season. See more information here... AndrewTalk To Me 02:10, November 28, 2014 (UTC) It's ALMOST THE NEW YEAR!!!! :D well, it is in Australia.... rarity is worst pony 19:21, December 31, 2014 (UTC) September 07L.GRACE AOI: Over Africa A new tropical wave is being monitored by the NHC, and is on the 5-day outlook at 0/10. I believe gradual development is possible in the long run, and I won't be surprised if we see Grace from this AOI. But development should only be slow, and due to the unfavorable conditions around the Atlantic, who knows what this system might do. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 06:05, September 2, 2015 (UTC) : Grace this is supposed to be? Hope becomes a C5 out in the Atlantic! Remember to reply back on my talk page! Hurricanes are awesome 23:50, September 2, 2015 (UTC) ::Yes, it's supposed to be Grace. And it won't come even close to C5, as there hasn't been one since 2007 and the conditions throughout the Atlantic just won't support a storm strengthening that much. We also don't need to reply this back on your talk, since we can reply here. Back to the AOI, it's now 0/20. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 01:47, September 3, 2015 (UTC) Now with a 40% chance for development, it can possibly become "Grace" or at least "Six-L" when over the Cape-Verde islands. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']][[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'2005 - 2015']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|��'KATRINA'��]] 21:58, September 3, 2015 (UTC) : More specifically, it's 20% (48 hours) and 40% (5 days). It is also a good time to remind everyone to Beware The First Storm Of September!!!!!!! Though I'm not sure how the adage will hold up this year :/ --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:57, September 4, 2015 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Gah Steven, when you say Eric's great adage it reminds me of...just how much I miss him. :( he hasn't posted once since the end of 2012 season, with Sandy. Anyways, back to this, it's been invested and it could become something in the long run, but development, if any, will be slow to occur. It probably won't become anything until it reaches the area where Erika formed, if that. Ryan1000 02:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC) I miss Steven Eric too. I mean, I didn't know him much because I joined in 2012 and wasn't that active on this wiki until late 2013. However, I've gone back through the years on these forums and I've laughed at some of his older posts, a lot. Anyways, this, as Ryan said, won't do much, so I don't think it'll hold up this year. Also, I'm thinking we should make an adage for 'I' storms, for obvious reasons. leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 23:48, September 4, 2015 (UTC) (edited) (Why did I put Steven instead of Eric? Typical leeboy100 screwup) : Lol, stuff like that sometimes happens when you either type too fast or are not careful. XD Anyway, I also barely know Eric myself, since I joined the wiki in July 2013, but I've been reading the forums on this wiki since around the time of Hurricane Sandy. The adage certainly won't hold up this year for sure; this invest is looking likely to be a fishspinner. It's up to 70/80, BTW. Looks like Grace will be used for an actually normal storm this year! Unlike that strange 2009 incarnation. And lastly, an "I" storm adage would be a good idea, due to really obvious reasons. I tried making it up back during Ingrid in September 2013, calling it "Beware The "I" Storm!", but this year looks likely to not produce a destructive "I" storm due to how inactive the year was. Unless this "I" storm is a major in the Caribbean in October. Who knows what will happen, in the future of this season. I will say my new adage, with links provided, once we reach our "I" storm. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 23:59, September 4, 2015 (UTC) ::: Woah, this thing's organizing pretty fast, it's now up to 70/90 and could become a depression as soon as tomorrow. But the faster it intensifies, the more likely it'll recurve north and east and remain at sea. Ryan1000 02:22, September 5, 2015 (UTC) ::::I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to find Tropical Depression Six or potentially Tropical Storm Grace tomorrow morning. This wave is really getting its act together. I don't believe this one will get to be too strong, maybe just a potent tropical storm. Owen 04:43, September 5, 2015 (UTC) :::::Replying to what Steve said about the first storm of September, we may or may not get a C5 Grace like This Prediction I found on Hypothetical Hurricanes. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']][[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'2005 - 2015']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|��'KATRINA'��]] 13:39, September 5, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seven Now numbered and forecast to become Grace as it heads west towards the Lesser Antilles in the long run, but the area is still overrun by strong wind shear and stable air. It may not make it past the area where Danny and Erika died. Ryan1000 16:04, September 5, 2015 (UTC) YES!!! WE HAVE IT!!! WE HAVE DEPRESSION SEVEN! [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']][[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'2005 - 2015']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|��'KATRINA'��]] 17:27, September 5, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Grace AL, 07, 2015090518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 257W, 35, 1007, -- Amazing Grace has arrived! Owen 19:46, September 5, 2015 (UTC) A bit late. But, grace is here. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']][[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'2005 - 2015']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|��'KATRINA'��]] 22:04, September 5, 2015 (UTC) : NHC confirmed, but the track forecast is pretty much the same. Ryan1000 22:45, September 5, 2015 (UTC) : Yay, I guess. leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 23:46, September 5, 2015 (UTC) : Grace has finally came to us! She should gradually strengthen over the next few days, but the hostile Atlantic could probably prevent her from reaching hurricane strength. It is only forecast to strengthen to 55 knots (65 mph), but it would probably not be out of the question for Grace to achieve hurricane strength with all the ocean in her path. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 21:12, September 6, 2015 (UTC) : Darn editing conflicts. Anyways, what I was going to say was "Amazing" Grace is predicted to take a path similar to Erika. We may need to watch this, Dominica does not need another tropical storm. Erika has already done enough. leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 21:15, September 6, 2015 (UTC) ::: Not going to happen leeboy, Grace is moving much faster than Erika and it'll be encountering a crapload of strong wind shear when it nears the lessers. That shear, which could be up to 40 knots, should tear Grace down to a depression or dissipate it completely. Ryan1000 01:20, September 7, 2015 (UTC) ::: That's good. Hopefully that happens leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 01:32, September 7, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Grace Now down to a tropical depression. Bye Grace! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:20, September 8, 2015 (UTC) it looks like a open wave in visible. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:40, September 8, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Grace What a graceless waste of a name. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:35, September 9, 2015 (UTC) : You mean what a dis-Grace-ful storm, right? (forgive the pun, I couldn't resist). Ryan1000 19:15, September 9, 2015 (UTC) ::Same difference XD --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:18, September 9, 2015 (UTC) : This storm fell from grace. Am I right? leeboy100My Talk! 21:05, September 9, 2015 (UTC) ::Storms can't fall from heights they never reached ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:18, September 9, 2015 (UTC) ::True. XD leeboy100My Talk! 22:51, September 9, 2015 (UTC) 08L.HENRI 92L.INVEST Newly invested, and is at 10/20 on the official TWO. Could develop into Henri within the next few days. Owen 00:20, September 8, 2015 (UTC) : Now up to 40%. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, September 8, 2015 (UTC) ::Now 60/60. Henri is almost here! If Henri forms, however, it'll likely be a fairly quick stunt as it will be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday. Owen 00:42, September 9, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eight NHC issued new advisories for the newly formed T.D. 8. Must have been quick: the first surface wind field map for the depression is centered south of Nigeria. Jake52 (talk) 07:16, September 9, 2015 (UTC) : Nigeria? You mean Newfoundland. This thing is going to be heading north and then east, but it doesn't have much time to strengthen. Could become Henri briefly. Ryan1000 19:15, September 9, 2015 (UTC) ::Nope...Nigeria. More Ghana, though. Jake52 (talk) 22:31, September 9, 2015 (UTC) :::It's usually a mistake by the NHC...the map is fixed now.--Isaac829 23:10, September 9, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Henri He's here! Owen 02:43, September 10, 2015 (UTC) : Eh, you beat me by a few minutes. Well, forecast to head northeast and out to sea, just offshore of Newfoundland. Ryan1000 02:47, September 10, 2015 (UTC) Aoi: ECMWF GoM storm Aoi: ECMWF GoM storm Euro is showing a storm by the end of the 00z run. its very consistent the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:34, September 9, 2015 (UTC) AOI.Over Africa AOI.Over Africa Expected to move off the coast soon and has a 20% chance of developing in 5 days. Though it's probably going to be moving over the same general area where Grace, Danny, and Erika died in the long run. Ryan1000 11:24, September 10, 2015 (UTC) Retirements at a glance While the Atlantic continues to be boring and inactive, we're already deep into the season. This means it's about time to do retirements. Some people like Dylan might complain about starting this section early, but I'm just a bit impatient and want to start this section today. So, without further ado... :Nah, we're late enough into the season that I'm okay with starting retirement predictions now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:55, August 20, 2015 (UTC) ::I began these predictions on August 9th (my time, not UTC) though, so that's why I was worried it might have been a bit too early and you would complain. Now, it's certainly a ripe time for these predictions. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:35, August 20, 2015 (UTC) (Retirement colors: 0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) *Ana: 1% - It was the earliest U.S. strike on record, but the damages and deaths won't earn it retirement. *Bill: 2.5% - 7 deaths were caused throughout its path, but damage was minimal. See you in 2021! *Claudette: 0% - I consider it an epic fail. The only impacts were rainfall in North Carolina (pre-development) and in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland. *Danny: 1% - Danny was a tiny major hurricane in a somewhat southerly location, but impacts to the Lessers are just minor at best. He'll come back in 2021. *Erika: 65% - Just look at what it did to Dominica. We might have an Allison 2.0 here. *Fred: 1% - It wasn't that bad for the Cape Verdes at all, but it was a really record breaking storm as it was the easternmost hurricane in the tropical Atlantic not counting the area where Vince formed, and it also became the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verdes since 1892. Because it wasn't that impacting, the name will almost certainly stay for 2021. *Grace: ? - Predictions will be released once the storm has dissipated. Anyone else want to do theirs now? You can use my color idea if you like. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:17, August 10, 2015 (UTC) My retirements: +0.5% *Ana: 0% — Nah, a tropical storm *Billy: 15% — A severe tropical storm on a scale, well nah. *Claudette: 0.5% — Who would retire this? *Danny - 0% *Erika - 99% - OH OH OH OH OH! ERIKA YOUR GROUNDED GROUNDED GROUNDED FOR LIFE! Remember to reply back on my talk page! Hurricanes are awesome 20:02, September 1, 2015 (UTC) ---- : (Retirement colors: NaN%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))(thanks steve) : :D :D odile is back! •Anna and Elsa: NaN% - meh... •Bill Clinton:' 1%' - meh... •Claudette: NaN% - u wot m8? •Danny: NaN% - yes. just NO. •Erika: 65% ''' - destructive weakling? dang •Fred: '''NaN% - LOL •Grace: NaN% - no comment. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:32, August 16, 2015 (UTC) ---- Puffle is here with more lame science stuff Retirements at a glance!!1 Ana: 1% - Surprised me to see a pre-season storm, especially with an El Nino. Bill: 2.7% -Sorry Billy, you're still not ready Claudette: 0.1% - Affected very little land, and was the worst storm ever. Danny: >1% Okay Danny, I like you, but no. Just no. Erika: 95% - Can you find "Dominica" on the map? No? Erika did that. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] 2005 - 2015 �� 00:38, August 30, 2015 (UTC) ---- Other than Erika, nothing is worth retiring as of now. Storm by storm, here's my calls... *Ana - 2% - Minor damage and an indirect death. It was not nothing, but not enough to retire it either. *Bill - 17% - 100 million in damage isn't half bad, but the U.S, let alone Texas, have seen far worse and it's probably not getting retired. *Claudette - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a day. That's all. *Danny - 0% - It was really cool to see how this managed to pull off a major hurricane in the open Atlantic despite otherwise unfavorable conditions, but like Don '11, it fell flat on it's face as soon as it hit land. The Lessers suffered next to nothing from this, other than some (beneficial) rain. *Erika - 95% - This might seem generous at first glance, but the fact is Erika caused over 200 million dollars in damage on Dominica, destroyed nearly everything in the country's airport beyond use, and costed the country half of it's annual GDP. So yeah...Allison is getting company next spring. *Fred - 10% - Cape Verde got off much easier with this one than they otherwise could've. *Grace - 0% - This was just downright...Dis-Grace-ful. *Henri - ?? - Still active. That's all for now. Ryan1000 11:39, August 27, 2015 (UTC) My turn :D *Ana: 0%- minimal damage, 1 indirect death, this won't be enough for retirement. *Bill: 5%- Caused flooding and 7 deaths, but it's not likely it will be retired *Claudette: 0%- At least we got some Atlantic activity. *Danny: 0%- An impressive storm, I wasn't '' '' even expecting it to become a hurricane, let alone a category 3! ''It didn't hit land though, *Erika: '''75%' I know, I'm being lenient with this storm, for two reasons. One: I don't know Dominica's track record for retirement, and two: and this is the big one. There is around a 50/50 chance Erika won't be retired because of the fact that it never reached hurricane strength. Despite me bringing these up, I personally think Erika should be retired, but I won't be too surprised if it's snubbed. *Fred: 5% It shocked pretty much everyone with it hitting Cape Verde, but retirement is not likely. *Grace: 0% What a disgraceful storm that took a fall from grace and became a storm that was not so amazing. This was the coup-de-grace of fails. Too much puns? leeboy100My Talk! 09:14, August 28, 2015 (UTC) : Leeboy, Gordon '94 caused most of its deaths in the less-prepared country of Haiti, who also snubbed Hanna '08. Dominica hasn't seen a storm as bad as Erika since, reportedly, David in 1979, which killed 56 people on the island. Ryan1000 16:08, September 2, 2015 (UTC) : I know Ryan. What I was saying was that there is a possibility that either a) retirement won't be requested or b) the WMO will snub it. Although, I think it deserves retirement, and will be mad (but not surprised) if it isn't. leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 21:22, September 6, 2015 (UTC) Ryan, that $16 million figure wasn't from Dominica. It was from Puerto Rico and it's mostly crop damage. According to the Prime Minister, damage in Dominica could be "tens of millions" and that the damage will set the island's development back 20 years. While I'm at it, might as well give mine: *Ana: 1% (It caught the US off-guard, but that, essentially, was it. Minor damage and one indirect death don't get a storm retired. *Bill: 5% (Brought a higher death toll, but outside of teaching everyone about the brown ocean, nothing going. Still minor damage.) *Claudette: 0% (Big ball of nothing.) *Danny: 0% (It scared people, but merely scaring people isn't enough most of the time (see: Sonamu). Danny did nothing else.) *Erika: 90% (Nearly every storm that hit Dominica went on to do worse elsewhere, so this is entirely on them to ask for retirement, but likely 50 dead, tens of millions in damage, and the country set back 20 years? If those figures hold up, Allison may be getting company. Not higher because, as I said, I'm not sure about Dominica's retirement standards. EDIT: From tens of millions to $244 million? Even leaving margin of error (it being a tropical storm, Dominica's uncertain retirement standards, the stats being off), I can't bring myself to justify less than 90% now.) Those are mine! 23:08, August 29, 2015 (UTC) (PS: This was mine. Forgot how many is a signature. <_< Jake52 (talk) 00:07, August 30, 2015 (UTC)) : I see, my bad on that. If Erika was bad enough to set the island back 20 years on development, it's probably getting retired. Though I'm not sure what a good analogy would be for her; Klaus flooded Martinique alone, Tomas hit St. Lucia and eventually Haiti, I don't think there's been any storm before that hit Dominica hard and didn't do much afterwards. The last time a storm was this bad for Dominica was David in '79, which also ripped apart the Dominican Republic and hit the east coast as a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:33, August 30, 2015 (UTC) ::: Someone edited the Wikipedia article to say Erika caused $100 million total, but a recent report says Dominica estimates that preliminary damage to basic infrastructure on the island may be as high as $226 million. Words fail me. Jake52 (talk) 06:21, September 4, 2015 (UTC) ::::: I don't recall, but Bill did cause 100 million in damage. Not negligible, but not enough by U.S. standards. If that 272 million damage total for Dominica is correct, I could definitely see Erika joining Allison as only the second TS to ever be retired in the Atlantic. I don't think any storm has hit Dominica this bad and not caused many impacts elsewhere. It's at least the worst since David. Ryan1000 20:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC) Here's mine: *Ana: 1% - She was the earliest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States, but her impacts don't merit her removal off of the list. *Bill: 3% - Eh, $100 million in damages isn't huge in United States standards, he'll be back in 2021. *Claudette: 0% - Absolutely not. *Danny: 1% - He managed to impress and reach C3 status before getting shredded by wind shear before causing significant effects on the Lesser Antilles. *Erika: 70% - I'm being slightly reluctant with her, considering there is uncertainty behind Dominica's retirement standards. However, considering she caused at least '$244 million in damages on that nation alone really convinces that Allison is more likely than not to get company next spring. *Fred: 10% - He may be active as I type this, but it could've been much worse in Cabo Verde. It's safe to say he'll be returning in 2021. *Grace: 0% - Was this a joke? *Henri: TBA - Currently active. I'll update this as each of the remaining storms form. Owen 16:50, September 5, 2015 (UTC) Time for me to post mine: *Ana: 3% - A pre-season shock for the East Coast, but impacts were minor. *Bill: 13% - Not negligible, but not bad enough for retirement. *Claudette: 0% - Lol, no. *Danny: 1% - A fun-to-watch throwback to the days when the MDR actually ''was the Atlantic's main development region (at least intensity-wise), but Danny sh-t the bed just as it hit the Lessers, and it's coming back in 2021. *'''Erika: 55% - Historic impacts in Dominica, which have already been elaborated on by Ryan and Jake. The only reason I am giving Erika such a conservative percentage is pure cynicism; considering that TS retirements are as rare as they are (with disastrous storms such as Bret '93 and Matthew '10 getting snubbed), I cannot bring myself to expect one. While retirement damn well should happen here, I'm not certain that it actually will happen. *Fred: 14% - Cape Verde may have lucked out, but 7 people did die when Fred sank a fishing boat offshore Guinea-Bissau. *Grace: 0% - Lawl. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:47, September 6, 2015 (UTC) Post-season changes You know it's bad when the latest storm's TCR is out, and we're not even halfway with the season.--Isaac829 02:23, August 18, 2015 (UTC) : Yeah...with Claudette's TCR just released we may have to open the TCR section of the betting pools early again this year. We'll wait until later though. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC) :: This is proof the Atlantic is once again sucking this year. That is, unless the NHC is beginning the TCR's earlier than usual each season no matter how active it is. That could be a possibility also, but for now, it's likely it is starting early because of the season being inactive. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:37, August 20, 2015 (UTC) :::: Ana could be upgraded to a Cat 1 because of this vid: Hurricanes are awesome (talk) 20:16, August 21, 2015 (UTC) saying by this. Anna and Elsa was possibly a hurricane.the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 21:23, August 21, 2015 (UTC) : This may not be true, because Ana's windspeeds may not have been hurricane-force (over 74 mph), because just having an eye doesn't mean you have a hurricane. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Party? OH HELL YES!!!]] 19:30, August 26, 2015 (UTC) Replacement names Since Erika has a chance of retirement now, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Erika? Here are some of my suggestions: *Elizabeth *Eve *Ella *Ellen *Evelyn *Ebony *Eleanor/Ellie *Elisha *Elma *Elsa If I had to pick one of these, I would pick Ellie (my sister's name). Evelyn, Ella, or Elsa would be my next choices. Ryan1000 03:53, August 30, 2015 (UTC) Elsa and Ana on the same list would be hilarious XD. I choose Elsa. leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 15:54, August 30, 2015 (UTC) : If Elsa is its replacement, might as well call this list the "Frozen" list. XD --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 22:56, September 1, 2015 (UTC) : I just realized 'Olaf' is being used in the Pacific this year. It really ''is ''the Frozen list :D leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 01:45, September 2, 2015 (UTC) ::Olaf and Elsa would be better for Winter storms. Anyways, Eve would probably be the replacement name for Erika. I don't wanna see Erika on naming lists anymore. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']][[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'2005 - 2015']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|��'KATRINA'��]] 13:44, September 5, 2015 (UTC) :::My first choice is Eli's'''abeth (spelled with an 's', as I have an old friend whose name is spelled that way). If that's too long, then I pick Eve as a second choice. --'Dylan''' (Hurricane 99) 14:18, September 5, 2015 (UTC)